ECH Editorial Team
The Measure of CEO Confidence™ indicator, developed by The Conference Board in collaboration with The Business Council, reached 59 points, 11 higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025, when it stood at 48. A reading above 50 reflects a predominance of optimistic responses over pessimistic ones.
The survey, conducted between February 3 and 16 with the participation of 142 CEOs, shows a clear shift in business sentiment. According to Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, the improvement reflects a return of optimism among corporate leaders.
Perceptions of the current economy compared to six months ago have shifted to moderately positive territory, while expectations for the next six months have changed from mild pessimism to an openly optimistic outlook.
The assessment of their own sectors has also evolved favorably. More executives believe that the situation in their industry has improved and project an even stronger scenario in the short term. Even the assessment of current conditions within their own markets—a component not included in the main calculation of the index—moved into positive territory.
In parallel with the rebound in confidence, companies are showing a greater willingness to invest. 35% of CEOs expect to increase capital spending in the next twelve months, compared to 22% who anticipated doing so by the end of 2025. Only 11% foresee cuts in investment, while the majority (54%) do not plan any changes.
However, the labor market reflects a more cautious attitude. 31% of CEOs expect to expand their workforce, a figure only slightly lower than the previous quarter, but still higher than the 27% who anticipate reductions. 41% do not anticipate any changes in the size of their workforce, suggesting a strategy of stability.
Regarding salaries, the trend points to more moderate increases—mainly between 1% and 3%—although the group projecting increases above 5% has grown again.
Regarding recruitment, executives noted that finding qualified personnel was somewhat easier in the first quarter. However, the percentage of companies reporting significant difficulties in certain areas also increased, indicating a still-tight labor market in specific segments.
As for the risks that most concern companies, artificial intelligence and new technologies now top the list of worries, slightly displacing geopolitical factors. Cyber risks also remain among the main areas of focus.
In contrast, concerns related to supply chains and trade disputes have decreased in relative importance. On the other hand, financial and macroeconomic risks gained relevance, surpassing legal and regulatory risks.
The impact of tariffs continues to be a significant factor. 71% of CEOs reported experiencing higher costs due to increased tariffs. Faced with this scenario, 44% indicated that they passed or plan to pass these costs on to customers, while 27% opted to absorb them, potentially affecting their margins.
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